Marc Grayson wrote:

One of the more intelligent and straightforward guides to investing from Stein...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/busin … ref=slogin

Yeah, I remember when that one came out.

Last edited by Horace (2008-10-17 23:09:16)

l still stick by what l say. Australia will be largely protected from the world economic crisis due to Chinese manufacturing. The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world (low Chinese wages have lead to higher world demand for manufacturing). Since we (Oz) suuply raw materials to this country and other Asian manufacturers, our inflow of income from Asia should keep our economy going o.k.

From my understanding: Euro and U.S banks were paying commissions to employees for approving loans sharted all this bullshit in the first place. Loans became way to east to get, the prices of houses/land went down, then the banks had no assets/liquidity, and...loans could no longer be given out.  Banks didn't expect to be caught out by defaults on loans and later deceasing housing prices and , so banks ran out of assets.



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Footnote: "The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world. 

Economic growth in China may be viewed in a very skeptical manner...but remember that low Chinese wages are causing a large cause of economic growth, and much Western world manufacturing economies are dying because of it. This means that China (lacking manufacturing competition) is becoming a seriously major economic power, so it will survive well in the eco crisis.

Last edited by The_Shooman (2008-10-20 07:50:37)

formby wrote:

Not so sure, the 'Global' economy is now so incestuous that I think it nigh on imposable that any country will escape the current financial crisis without some form of retrenchment.

True but I think a lot of countries need to realize they don't need to rely soley on the US, in fact they shouldn't rely soley on the US as the "economic leader of the free world". Chart your own course, build your own local economic networks, don't all focus on a single market as the make-or-break destination.

Tony Ventresca wrote:

formby wrote:

Not so sure, the 'Global' economy is now so incestuous that I think it nigh on imposable that any country will escape the current financial crisis without some form of retrenchment.

True but I think a lot of countries need to realize they don't need to rely soley on the US, in fact they shouldn't rely soley on the US as the "economic leader of the free world". Chart your own course, build your own local economic networks, don't all focus on a single market as the make-or-break destination.

Monetary policy in the developed world is too interconnected at this point for anybody to free themselves from the herd.  As long as the credit cycle in each country is relatively similar, the business cycle will be as well.

Anyway, this is some funny shit: http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/

The_Shooman wrote:

l still stick by what l say. Australia will be largely protected from the world economic crisis due to Chinese manufacturing. The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world (low Chinese wages have lead to higher world demand for manufacturing). Since we (Oz) suuply raw materials to this country and other Asian manufacturers, our inflow of income from Asia should keep our economy going o.k.

From my understanding: Euro and U.S banks were paying commissions to employees for approving loans sharted all this bullshit in the first place. Loans became way to east to get, the prices of houses/land went down, then the banks had no assets/liquidity, and...loans could no longer be given out.  Banks didn't expect to be caught out by defaults on loans and later deceasing housing prices and , so banks ran out of assets.



-------------------------
Footnote: "The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world. 

Economic growth in China may be viewed in a very skeptical manner...but remember that low Chinese wages are causing a large cause of economic growth, and much Western world manufacturing economies are dying because of it. This means that China (lacking manufacturing competition) is becoming a seriously major economic power, so it will survive well in the eco crisis.

Sorry Shooey, this from front page of today's Wall Street Journal:

China Slows, World Feels the Pain.

"China's booming economy is cooling more rapidly than most forecasters had expected, undermining hopes that Chinese demand could help keep the global economy humming even as the developed world grinds through a financial crisis..."

Full story here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122447844849849567.html

Mind you, "slowing" in reference to the Chinese economy is relative, since they will still grow at a rate most of us would be envious of, but nonetheless, they are starting to feel the downdrafts as well..

John Rotten wrote:

The_Shooman wrote:

l still stick by what l say. Australia will be largely protected from the world economic crisis due to Chinese manufacturing. The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world (low Chinese wages have lead to higher world demand for manufacturing). Since we (Oz) suuply raw materials to this country and other Asian manufacturers, our inflow of income from Asia should keep our economy going o.k.

From my understanding: Euro and U.S banks were paying commissions to employees for approving loans sharted all this bullshit in the first place. Loans became way to east to get, the prices of houses/land went down, then the banks had no assets/liquidity, and...loans could no longer be given out.  Banks didn't expect to be caught out by defaults on loans and later deceasing housing prices and , so banks ran out of assets.



-------------------------
Footnote: "The Chinese economy have experienced some of the highest economic growth in the world. 

Economic growth in China may be viewed in a very skeptical manner...but remember that low Chinese wages are causing a large cause of economic growth, and much Western world manufacturing economies are dying because of it. This means that China (lacking manufacturing competition) is becoming a seriously major economic power, so it will survive well in the eco crisis.

Sorry Shooey, this from front page of today's Wall Street Journal:

China Slows, World Feels the Pain.

"China's booming economy is cooling more rapidly than most forecasters had expected, undermining hopes that Chinese demand could help keep the global economy humming even as the developed world grinds through a financial crisis..."

Full story here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122447844849849567.html

Mind you, "slowing" in reference to the Chinese economy is relative, since they will still grow at a rate most of us would be envious of, but nonetheless, they are starting to feel the downdrafts as well..

l've been following China really closely, so i'm aware of what's going on. We'll see what happens. l don't think it will be as effected as people may think. Sure it will dip significantly, but it will survive better than most. America might be a basket case, but not everyone is in the dire straights like the U.S and hence people aren't full-on  negative about the crisis like you guys are.

Last edited by The_Shooman (2008-10-21 23:33:30)

John Rotten wrote:

The_Shooman wrote:

l've been following China really closely, so i'm aware of what's going on. We'll see what happens. l don't think it will be as effected as people may think. Sure it will dip significantly, but it will survive better than most. America might be a basket case, but not everyone is in the dire straights like the U.S and hence people aren't full-on  negative about the crisis like you guys are.

As I mentioned, China slowing means China going to 8% or 9% annual growth, which hasn't been experienced in the industrialized world for some time.  The interesting thing is that the world almost seems to be betting on the U.S. economy and against those of our trading partners; the US Dollar has strengthened demonstrably in the past month while the Euro, CAD and GBP are selling off.

That might just exacerbate the prob.

Looks like there is an electronic floor of 7,591:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home

Time to short everything.

Marc Grayson wrote:

Tony Ventresca wrote:

Marc Grayson wrote:

If you think things are bad now, just wait until Obama gets into office.

McCain would be no better, from an economic & fiscal viewpoint.

You may be right although some theorize a contributing factor behind the stock market declines is investors' reactions to a likely Obama presidency and the tax policy he'd put into place (higher cap gains, corp. tax rates, etc.).  On the other hand, I'm hopeful Obama will lower taxes on the purchase of nice clothes.

I think the prob runs much deeper than an election cycle. That the current gov't ran up the largest deficit in American history didn't seem to bother Wall Street. Although given how badly most banks, financial firms, etc, have been operated lately maybe that sort of thing doesn't register with them as a problem, it would explain much.

The_Shooman wrote:

ls it true that that Pallin woman ran spent $140,000 on clothing over 2 months?  That bleedin' moose hunting horse-woman is not helping Mc Cains run. She's an embarrassment to the human race.

* i'm keeping out of politics in this thread. Just an observation.

Sarah Palin saved McCain's candidacy.  He'd be down by 20 pts now w/out Palin and she didn't pay for her wardrobe, the Republican Party foot the bill.

John Rotten wrote:

Marc Grayson wrote:

Tony Ventresca wrote:

McCain would be no better, from an economic & fiscal viewpoint.

You may be right although some theorize a contributing factor behind the stock market declines is investors' reactions to a likely Obama presidency and the tax policy he'd put into place (higher cap gains, corp. tax rates, etc.).  On the other hand, I'm hopeful Obama will lower taxes on the purchase of nice clothes.

I think there may be an element of truth here.  I got into a discussion on another MB with a person who posited that a potential boost to the market would be an immediate cut in the capital gains tax rate.  I argued that this would likely induce more selling, and not buying, with investors wanting to lock any gains they had made before an Obama presidency, which would result in even higher capital gains rates.  Of course, this was back when Dow was still above 10,000 and people still actually had capital gains!

As to the lower taxes on the purchase of nice clothes..

Would be nice to see an elimination or, at least, a suspension of the capital gains tax, under the circumstances.  Only problem with that is most people these days have capital losses, not gains.  I wonder of The Messiah realizes capital gains won't be there for him to tap into for his massive governmental programs.

Marc Grayson wrote:

The_Shooman wrote:

ls it true that that Pallin woman ran spent $140,000 on clothing over 2 months?  That bleedin' moose hunting horse-woman is not helping Mc Cains run. She's an embarrassment to the human race.

* i'm keeping out of politics in this thread. Just an observation.

Sarah Palin saved McCain's candidacy.  He'd be down by 20 pts now w/out Palin and she didn't pay for her wardrobe, the Republican Party foot the bill.

l wouldn't believe everything the papers say, such a conclusion is impossible to make accurately. Who really knows how Palin has effected voters? America's open checkbook mentality absolutely amazes me (most of the world just doesn't run that way). Fortunately, America's open check book mentality will be no more. Something had to break, and fortunately it did.

l think the U.S.A has learnt the most important lesson you can learn. That is...you can't have it all, you can't have everything. The crisis will smarten them up, make them pull their heads in and give them a good dose of reality. lt had to happen; money is not a bottomless pit.

Last edited by The_Shooman (2008-10-25 08:14:49)

This morning, I bought the most wonderful herringbone topcoat for winter wear.  It makes me silly just thinking about wearing it the for the first time..

Last edited by John Rotten (2008-10-25 08:43:58)