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#326 2010-10-05 23:15:58

Maximilien de Robespierre
Member
Posts: 1153

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#327 2010-10-05 23:33:10

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Yes, but these people were (and are still) in the minority.  The majority explanation of why the house market is suffering is that greedy Wall Street bankers were the cause - certainly not that the government pumped up the asset bubble & that greedy middle class was more than happy to comply.  I completely agree with your view on this, but we are in the minority.

 

#328 2010-10-06 00:04:50

fxh
Big Down Under.
From: Melbourne
Posts: 6159

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#329 2010-10-06 00:17:28

Maximilien de Robespierre
Member
Posts: 1153

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#330 2010-10-06 01:49:19

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Australia should do well, because it's an important exporter of raw materials & precious metals.  The Euro is in a less bad position than the USD, so you might not get much benefit, especially at such short horizon (but then again, the Euro could collapse or break down by then).  In any case, I expect the Netherlands to be more expensive than Ireland, all else being equal. 

WRT US real estate, the market was also boosted by the tax credit for 1st time home buyers.  This is now gone, so things are going to clear up (prices are going to go down).  My guess is that the real-estate market will go down at least 20% in the next 5 years.  It's a guess though.

 

#331 2010-10-06 02:58:42

fxh
Big Down Under.
From: Melbourne
Posts: 6159

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#332 2010-10-06 03:30:41

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Ah, interesting thanks.

 

#333 2010-10-06 07:52:01

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Good god, JDelage, you need help. I get the feeling you can't even take a crap without thinking about politics or giving the act some sort of political spin.


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

#334 2010-10-06 08:05:00

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

You cannot separate economics from politics and be consistent.  They both inherit from one's general philosophical outlook.  Plus, economics is inherently muddy and prone to interpretation.

I'm open to rational arguments, but I am not trying to win "flame war" points on an internet forum.  It only matters to me that people here examine my analysis seriously to the extant that I rather like this place, and therefore the members.

Last edited by JDelage (2010-10-06 08:05:43)

 

#335 2010-10-06 09:50:46

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

#336 2010-10-06 10:04:44

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#337 2010-10-06 10:46:29

formby
Member
From: Wiseacre
Posts: 8359

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"Dressing, like painting, should have a residual stability, plus punctuation and surprise." - Richard Merkin

Souvent me Souvient

 

#338 2010-10-06 12:08:39

4F Hepcat
THE Cat
Posts: 14333

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Gold is a bubble. Everybody knows that, if you can see the train pulling out of the station, its already too late. That's why my money is still in Amazonian jute plantations.....

Fear not my friends, if you buy dried pasta and beans, tins of sardines, you don't need to spend that much to cover for 2-3 years worth of food. Of course, when it comes to booze, you need to be very careful in forward planning to ensure you don't run out, you probably need to spend four or five times as much as you will on food. At least.

Anyway, just got back from Dubai. If ever there was a place heading for the shit heap, that is one of them. Don't go there, don't holiday there, definitely don't take a job there, don't believe the hype. Don't take you little bambinos there, you will regret it.

Thankfully, I was only there for weekend business trip and I am safe molly-cuddled in my safe European home.


Vibe-Rations in Spectra-Sonic-Sound

 

#339 2010-10-10 04:06:51

fxh
Big Down Under.
From: Melbourne
Posts: 6159

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#340 2010-10-10 14:02:59

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

#341 2010-10-10 22:20:17

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Can you point out where?  Thx

 

#342 2010-10-12 05:57:30

meister
Member
Posts: 1141

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

 

#343 2010-10-13 15:45:28

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

#344 2010-10-13 18:29:33

fxh
Big Down Under.
From: Melbourne
Posts: 6159

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Live rates at 2010.10.14 00:29:00 UTC        
1.00 AUD    =0.995798 USD

 

#345 2010-10-13 18:35:49

fxh
Big Down Under.
From: Melbourne
Posts: 6159

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

The Australian dollar has received yet another boost, taking it within a whisker of parity to the greenback, as strong consumer inflation expectations data increased the chances of a November rate rise by the RBA.

The dollar jumped as high as 99.72 US cents after the data was published and was recently trading at 99.59 US cents, up from 99.01 US cents earlier this morning.

The median annual inflation expectation in a survey by the Melbourne Institute surged to 3.8 per cent in October, the highest level since April, from 3.1 per cent last month.
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Overnight, the Aussie hit a fresh 27-year high, its highest since the currency was floated in 1983, after persistent speculation among analysts about the US Federal Reserve's plans for quantitative easing.

But traders said big option barriers lay at $US1.000, suggesting it could be a slow grind towards parity.

In contrast, the US dollar hit a new nine-month low, with model funds seen selling the US dollar early in Asia.

"The market is still focusing on quantitative easing," said Tim Kelleher, Commonwealth Bank vice president of institutional banking and markets.

"The US dollar has continued to drop right off."

The Fed on Tuesday published minutes from policymakers' September meeting, in which they said they were prepared "to provide additional accommodation if needed" to support the recovery.

Expectations quickly firmed that the Fed was close to enacting a new bond-buying program, perhaps as soon as November.

The Fed employed it as a tool to combat the effects of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

 

#346 2010-10-13 22:40:55

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

And gold this am is at $1,377...

 

#347 2010-10-21 09:44:34

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

#348 2010-10-21 09:54:31

JDelage
Member
From: Seattle, WA
Posts: 673

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

Good article.

I don't agree that the economy will bounce back in 2012, and I think the GOP can cut funding to Obamacare (it doesn't need to repeal), but a GOP victory might still not be a bad thing for O.

 

#349 2010-10-21 10:24:18

Kingstonian
Member
From: sea to shining sea
Posts: 3205

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)

The reaction in France to pension changes is instructive. People take to the streets. Politicians seem to have much more difficulty shafting their citizens.

In the UK we just shrug and let it happen most of the time.

French protests were relegated to third or fourth item in the news on the state propaganda channel(BBC) in the UK. Probably did not want to put ideas in people's heads.

 

#350 2010-10-25 10:42:57

Big Tony
Member
Posts: 5478

Re: How Low will it Go? (Dow touched down to 7882 so far)


"What sort of post-apocalyptic deathscape is this?"
"I don't want to look like a cock hungry sailor after all !!!"
"When it comes to infidelity, broken families, and reckless fatherhood, the underclass are amateurs."

 

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