Not necessarily that extreme, the OPEC countries produced nothing at all. Their subsoil held oil that the oil companies extracted having invested heavily in technology and skilled engineers and technicians. OPEC created a monopolistic cartel, outside of market forces and the first great oil shock devastated the world economy in the 1970's. We are now living with that inherentence, as we enter the second great oil shock which has the potential to be many times worse.
The first accelerated inflation, instability in exchange rates up until the 1980's and ruined the economies of the least developed countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia, being the primary cause of the debt crisis that effected them so profoundly. Compared to the 1970 price, the increase in the price of crude reached 800% in 1974, 1000% in 1977 and 1500% in 1979. Inflation rose in industrial societies from 4% to over 12%.
Crude oil that sold for $18 a barrel in 1979 cost 15 cents to produce in Saudi Arabia - 12,000% the cost of production. A great many in the Arab world became multimillionaires. They produced nothing, just levelled a massive tax on the oil consumers.
The failure of Western industrial societies was not to heed the warning and ween ourselves away from oil. The oil party is coming to a rapid end, the LNG party has started, but behind closed doors the oil majors are investing billions in hydrogen. There ain't enough left at present consumption for very long. Some are saying by 2025 major wars for resources are inevitable.
Over population, a finite world and the only salvation our political and elites can offer us are various ponzi schemes of people and debt to pay for it all.
looks like things are approaching a climax in Libya:
fighter pilots ditching planes
eastern half of country firmly in rebel hands
dictator hunkered down in Tripoli with supposedly loyal troops
stay tuned...
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy...
PDSVA is still engaged in oil activities, renewables and also involved in getting hold of Rolls Royce generators for the ongoing electrical emergency. Once a State within a state, now Chavez has got his grubby hands on its revenues. From what I hear from associates who have been there recently, is that he's propped in power by an entourage who he rewards with vast wealth, the rest he gives beer too whilst wrecking infrastructure and such like.
Its unfortunate but true, most of the world is too 'effing awful to contemplate, particulary those nations the banksters and the elite keep telling us are the future.
Meanwhile, in a bunker in Tripoli.....
Last edited by Cruz Diez (2011-03-04 12:50:02)
Indeed, and OPEC is a cartel that initiated the first oil crisis. We are now entering the second. In purely Malthus terms, your analogy of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is spot on Cruz.
Looks like Saudi is next, and this will, as Robert Fisk points out effect us all:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudis-mobilise-thousands-of-troops-to-quell-growing-revolt-2232928.html
The complicit Western media will have a tough time now, risk upsetting the House of Saud? No, you will see a different kind of reporting when this day of rage kicks off.
The Malthusian view doesn't make any sense to me. The age of stone didn't end for lack of stones, the age of bronze didn't end for lack of bronze, the age of oil will not end for lack of oil. (Of course we may see significant price jumps.)
On a side note, gold is again largely over $1,400. Probably mostly due to the current instability in the Mid East, but still...