Peak oil, as in the easy, easy to get at oil has already happened. This is fact.
New technologies as Formby states will alleviate some of the pressure on reserves and as the oil price increases, the tar sands and the Arctic shelf will become more viable. And the Third Reich managed to fly the ME-652 jet from aviation fuel refined from coal, there are massive coal reserves left. Nevertheless, as regards to the mega fields waiting to be tapped, we have the deep water finds off Brazil and the Arctic which will become readily available when the ice melts. And that is really all that is left as untapped reserves.
You just need to look at ExxonMobil's annual report for 2010 and 90% of the proven reserves have been purchased through acquisitions. They're not acquiring much through exploration.
This is the second oil shock, brought about by peak oil and unrest in the Middle East. In any event, supply will soon outstrip demand (of easy oil), some will be denied access and they must suffer economically or wage war. Or may be the benign market will usher in equilibrium and a golden age of alternative energies, not I am afraid at current world population levels.
Last edited by Cruz Diez (2011-03-05 10:29:05)
Madoff: "the whole government is a ponzi scheme" (paraphrase)
Last edited by Big Tony (2011-03-06 16:21:18)
friends of friends just got back from Florida where the family has a condo, they said you could buy any property you wanted as everything seemed to be up for sale, the hotels and motels are full as people are living in them after losing their homes, kids line up in the morning outside the hotels and motels to catch the school bus
Last edited by Maximilien de Robespierre (2011-03-10 17:42:40)
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Filth in high places, looks like the author doesn't like the Prince encroaching in on his patch:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/8375011/Stephen-Days-letter-Royal-envoys-are-crass-and-insulting.html
I might go in there for $20M, tax free, to the name of my kid.
Having thought about, no, not even that.
How low will it go? I thought we were talking about another forum or two.
Just watched the Newshour and the footage from Japan is astounding: incredible damage to pretty much everything along the one coast. The Emperor was wearing a grey-on-grey-with-grey-and-some-grey outfit.
I've got a briefing here on China's Economic Outlook from Credit Suisse. Now accepting they are flogging a product - theres no reason to disbelieve some of the data.
A few bits with slight interpretation by me:
Since 2000 there has been a surge in minimum wages of between 15% to 37% (ignoring outliers) depending on area.
Big concern about upward wage pressure and transport costs in China
Inflation running at about 6% in China
Headline CPI = around 10% - food CPI=4%
1 year deposit rate = 4.5% Real rate = -0.8% or so
1 Year lending rate= 7.66%
Growth rate prediction = Moderate
There is now a massive reversal of agricultural labour to non agricultural labour - eg Rural to city.
There is a 17.5M gap between demand and supply for Labour. Shortfall of labour.
Prediction - explosion in low end consumption
Ongoing inflation
Housing upgrade
Increased investment in automation and machinery
NPR had an interview today with some young (Western) reporter in Japan. He travelled to an area outside Tokyo and the roads were clear but the area had zero food or supplies. He said the locals were fuming mad at the government for making no attempt to supply them, despite being an easy drive from Tokyo; the Japanese people apparently don't complain openly about their government, but the reporter has lived there for several years and said he could tell they are mad.
Interestingly, the UK media has been burying stories and live updates on the radiation situation since yesterday. Its all okay, like smoking a menthol cigarette.
Last edited by Maximilien de Robespierre (2011-03-18 17:07:30)